HOW TO PLAY
Every 6 hours everyone secretly picks RED or BLUE. The side with fewer units takes 2% from the other.
Any public call to go one way destroys the people who follow it: if it works, that side becomes the majority and pays. The only way to win steadily is to be unpredictable. Game theory calls this the minority game. It has no pure strategy, only a coin.
THE BANK
Tokens in a wallet do not play. Units in the bank do: send $ODD to the bank wallet and every token becomes one unit; ask for them back and they come back 1:1. Units move between players every tick, which a token balance cannot do without breaking the pools on pons. Deposits open at launch and close the day after at 18:00 UTC. Until the season starts you can leave 1:1.
ONE TICK
4 hours to vote, 2 hours of counting. A vote is a message your wallet signs: your address, the tick, the side and a random salt. No transaction, no gas. Your whole balance votes, no halves. The site keeps the vote sealed until the window closes, then publishes every vote with its signature, so anyone can recount and nobody can forge or change one.
Weight = the smaller of your units at the vote and at the count, so moving units around cannot vote twice. Not voting costs nothing that tick, but the vault goes only to those who voted every tick.
THE MATH
Every majority unit loses 2%. Those units form the pot, which the minority shares by weight. An exact tie moves nothing.
| MINORITY / MAJORITY | MAJORITY UNIT | MINORITY UNIT |
|---|---|---|
| 49 / 51 | −2.0% | +2.1% |
| 40 / 60 | −2.0% | +3.0% |
| 30 / 70 | −2.0% | +4.7% |
| 20 / 80 | −2.0% | +8.0% |
| 10 / 90 | −2.0% | +18.0% |
The harder the crowd piles onto one side, the more it pays and the fatter the few get. Example: 1,000,000 units vote, 640,000 red and 360,000 blue. Red gives up 12,800, the pot is 12,800 and every blue unit grows 3.56%.
THE VAULT AND MARKS
The token's creator fee on pons goes to the bank wallet: that is the vault. Only players who voted in all 12 ticks and never withdrew during the season get a share. It is split by marks, not by units: a mark is one unit that was the odd one in one tick. A perfect predictor earns 12 marks per unit, a coin about 6, a crowd follower 2 or 3. Winning twice: in units and in ETH.
Leaving the bank is always possible, 1 unit = 1 token; during the season it forfeits your vault share, and if you voted in the running tick the exit waits for that tick to settle. After the season everything is claimable with no deadline.
WHO HOLDS WHAT
The bank is a wallet run by the ODD team; the books are kept by this site. Deposits are read from the chain, votes are your signatures, and every withdrawal or claim is a signed request the bank pays out, visible on the chain. Your vote is known to you and to the site until the count; it is never shown to anyone else before then. Published votes carry signatures, so the count can be checked by anyone.
WHY COLLUSION FAILS
The influencer: a public call creates a crowd, the crowd becomes the majority and pays. An opinion leader can only hurt their followers.
The whale: 30% of the weight on one side is almost always the majority; the other 70% would have to split worse than 71 to 29 to save it. −2% per tick. Size is not an edge.
The hedge: two wallets, one on each side, is the mixed strategy. One half loses 2%, the other takes a share of the pot. Allowed, and self-limiting: the more weight hedges, the closer the sides get to 50/50 and the less there is to win.
The sniper: bots buy in the first second, but in the bank a unit is a unit. Their edge is the price, and they cash it by selling, not by playing.